Thinking

This is the first post on smith.bid. Consider it a flag in the ground.

I've been building at the intersection of prediction markets, AI, and narrative for a while now. Writing about it publicly has always been on the list — but I kept waiting for the "right time." Turns out, the right time is when you stop waiting.

What this space is for

I'll be writing about:

• Prediction markets — market structure, mispricings, and why these are the most important financial primitive since the stock exchange
• Narrative & positioning — how stories move markets, and how to read them before the crowd does
• AI & compute — the infrastructure layer underneath everything, and what happens when compute becomes capital
• Building in public — updates on what I'm working on, what's failing, and what's clicking

Why now

We're at a moment where the exponential functions are turning vertical. AI, crypto, prediction markets — they're not separate things. They're entangled elements of the same shift.

I want to think about that shift in public. Not because I have all the answers, but because the best thinking happens in conversation.

More soon.